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Explorer - Forecast

IT Business Analytics provides information regarding the status and values of Objectives, KPIs, or Metrics on the past and current periods in the Dashboard and Explorer tabs. The Forecast tab in Explorer provides a glimpse into the future by forecasting the entity future behavior, based on historical data, so you will be able more easily understand the underlying trend and to do all you can now to improve or maintain the desired behavior.

You can view the forecast of the upcoming future of the selected Objectives, KPIs, or Metrics (for which you have permission), in a period of up to 1 year from the current period.

Note The Forecast button is enabled only when you have the Forecast permission. For details about permissions, see Users and Roles - User Management

If the selected item (KPI, Objective, or Metric) has historical data but it has not been calculated for the current period, the item is considered invalid, and the Forecast button is disabled.

ClosedTo access:

Click the Explorer tab to access detailed information about all the Scorecards, Objectives, Perspectives, KPIs, KPI Breakdowns, Metric, or Metric Breakdown that are active in the STUDIO. In the EXPLORER tab, click the relevant Objective, KPI, or Metric, and click the Forecastbutton.

ClosedCalculation method for forecast

The correctness of the forecast calculation is based on the historical data of the entity and is calculated using the DoubleExponentialSmoothingModel algorithm. The more data there is the more precise the forecast is.

• ft = a.Yt+(1-a)(ft-1+bt-1)

• bt = g.(ft-ft-1)+(1-g).bt-1

where:

• Yt is the observed value at time t.

• ft is the forecast at time t.

• bt is the estimated slope at time t.

• a - (alpha) - is the first smoothing constant, used to smooth the observations. Its value is: 0.6.

• g - (gamma) - is the second smoothing constant, used to smooth the trend. Its value is: 0.6.

To forecast:

ft+m= ft+ mbt-m

where m=1 (The time interval).

The initial point is: f1=y1; b1=y2-y1

ClosedMinimum historical data

The best forecasts are based on a large amount of historical data.

To provide the best forecast using the above algorithm, the calculation relies on as much historical data as is available. The following table indicates what are the minimum historical periods needed to calculate a certain future period.

Future Period Minimum historical data
to calculate single future period 		Maximum period
possible for this periodicity 		Maximum historical data
to calculate maximum future period
1 day 30 days 14 days 420 days
1 week 12 weeks 4 weeks 48 weeks
1 month 12 months 3 months 36 months
1 quarter 6 quarters 3 quarters 18 quarters
1 year 3 years 3 years 9 years

ClosedLimitations

If you select a forecast period that cannot be calculated due to the lack of data, the error message You do not have enough valid historical data to calculate the forecast or you do not have the correct viewing permissions. Contact your administrator is issued, and the forecast calculation is not performed. When the historical data is less than the value of the Minimum historical data to calculate single future period, the Forecast is not calculated.

So for a yearly KPI, only when the historical data is less than 3 years, there will be insufficient data to calculate a 3 years, 2 years, and 1 years forecast.

ClosedView the forecast of a entity

To view the forecast of an entity:

  1. Click Explorer.

  2. Select the relevant entity in the Active KPIs pane, and click Forecast.

    The tab is enabled only when you have the Forecast permission.

  3. Select Current Mode in the in period <period> in the title of the page.

  4. In the Forecast page, select the Forecast period:

    1. For Day Periodicity – the list should present the dates of the upcoming 14 days in days granularity.
    2. For Week Periodicity – the list should present the dates of the upcoming 4 weeks in weeks granularity.
    3. For Month Periodicity – the list should present the dates of the upcoming 3 Months forecast in months granularity.
    4. For Quarter Periodicity – the list should present the dates of the upcoming 3 quarters forecast in quarter granularity.
    5. For Year Periodicity - the list should present the dates of the upcoming 3 Years forecast in years granularity.

    The forecast calculation is then performed.

ClosedUse cases

    Use Case #1 – View a 3 months forecast for a KPI:
    While checking the current status of a KPI, you noticed that there is a trend that indicates that the KPI threshold is about to be breached. Since it is very important to make sure that the KPI state stays as stable as possible during the upcoming 3 months, open Explorer, select the KPI and click the Forecast tab to see how the KPI is supposed to behave in the upcoming 3 months. You note that it is possible that during the next month, the KPI will be breached. You cannot wait any longer and make a drastic change so the KPI results improve immediately.

    Use Case #2 – View 14 days forecast for an Objective with insufficient historical data:
    You want to check the forecast of an Objective in the upcoming 14 days (all the KPIs under the objective are daily). Open Explorer, select the Objective, click Forecast, and set the Forecast period to 14 days ahead. Once the selection is done, the system notifies you that there is insufficient historical data to calculate the desired future period. You then decide to recalculate the Objective to ensure there are more than 30 days history data for this Objective.

ClosedEXPLORER Tab - Forecast

Note When in IT Business Analytics, you navigate to another tab and then return to the Explorer tab, the details of the item that was previously in focus are displayed again. However, its properties might be refreshed.

Note The Forecast button is displayed only if you have the correct permission.

The Explorer - Forecast page includes the following areas:

ClosedActive KPIs

User interface elements are described below (when relevant, unlabeled elements are shown in angle brackets):

UI Element

Description

<Search>

Enter the relevant string to display, in the tree, the nodes whose name includes the string.

In addition, the child nodes of the filtered nodes are also listed even when the child node names do not include the string.

If the display is filtered (in case you accessed the Explorer from one of the components in the Dashboard), the <Search> box displays information about the filter. For example:

Advanced Search. Opens additional fields to help you refine the component's filter:

  • Status: Select one of the All, Good, Warning, Critical, or No Data values to display only the elements with the selected status, in the Active KPIs area. When you select No Data, the search returns only the elements with no data.

  • Type: Select:

    • All. To display all the elements in the tree with the selected status.
    • KPI. To display only the KPIs with the selected status.
    • Metric. To display a list of all the Metrics (the Status is changed to All). If you had selected a value in Status, and then you select Metric, then the Status field displays All, and becomes inaccessible.
    • Objective.To display only the Objectives with the selected status, and their KPIs.
Active KPIs

Depending on how you accessed the Explorer tab, the pane lists all the Scorecards, Perspectives, Objectives, KPIs, KPI Breakdowns, Metrics, Metric Breakdowns, and Unassigned KPIs, active in the IT Business Analytics or a subset of these items.

The list of Scorecards that is displayed corresponds to the Scorecards that are permitted for your user. For details about permissions, see User Management

Note A Scorecard Administrator who wants to see a newly created Scorecard in Explorer (and who has the correct permissions to see the Scorecard), needs to refresh the Explorer using the Refresh button to display the Scorecard.

Click one of the Scorecards, Perspectives, Objectives, KPIs, KPI Breakdowns, Metrics, Metric Breakdowns, or Unassigned KPIs to display their detailed information in the other pane.

The area also displays on the right side of the Active KPIs pane, a subset of the following items depending on the type of item you selected:

  • The name of the item.
  • The value of the item.
  • The trend icon indicates the trend of the value calculated over the current period.
  • The status of the item, during the current period. It can be:
    • indicates that the status is Good.
    • indicates that the status is Warning.
    • indicates that the status is Critical.
    • indicates that the status is Pending and that the calculations have not yet been performed or completed.

ClosedForecast

The display of the Forecast for a specific entity depends on the user permission for the entity.

  • User interface elements are described below (when relevant, unlabeled elements are shown in angle brackets):

    UI Element

    Description
    <Name> in period <Selection> <Value> <Trend> <Status>

    The title lists:

    • <Name>. The name of the selected entity (Objective, KPI, or  Metric).
    • Value. The value of the selected item.
    • Trend. The trend icon indicates the trend of the value of the selected item in the selected period compared to its value in the previous period.

    • Status. The status of the KPI, KPI Breakdown (Metrics, and Metric Breakdowns do not have a status), during the current period. It can be:

      • indicates that the status is Good.
      • indicates that the status is Warning.
      • indicates that the status is Critical.
      • indicates that the status is Pending or No data, meaning that the calculation of the status was not yet completed or the status was not calculated or that there was en error in the calculation.
    <Date list>

    Note Make sure that Current Mode is selected in the in period <period> in the title of the Overview page.

    The list of periods that is displayed corresponds to the periods for which the forecast can be calculated based on the available historical data.

    <Graph format>

    • Historical data (left-hand area):

      • Indicates a regular "point" corresponding to a division of the time period.

        You can move the cursor above the graph to display a line that shows the exact date of a specific point.

      • is shown at the top of the display when there is no calculated data for the selected item for the selected period. This can be due to an incorrect formula (for example: division by zero), an arithmetic error due to missing data, or other reasons.

      • <Threshold>. The chart automatically displays the thresholds of the selected Objective, KPI, or Metric.

      • <X-axis>. The X-axis displays the time frame of the selected item, split into equal segments.

      • <Y-axis>. The Y-axis displays the values of the selected item in the relevant unit.

    • Forecast area

      • Indicates a regular "point" corresponding to a division of the time period.

        You can move the cursor above the graph to display a line that shows the exact date of a specific point.

      • is shown at the top of the display when there is no calculated data for the selected item for the selected period. This can be due to an incorrect formula (for example: division by zero), an arithmetic error due to missing data, or other reasons.

      • <Threshold>. The chart automatically displays the thresholds of the selected Objective, KPI, or Metric.

      • <X-axis>. The X-axis displays the forecast time frame of the selected item, split into equal segments.

      • <Y-axis>. The Y-axis displays the forecasted values of the selected item in the relevant unit.
    Thresholds

    The threshold definition of the Objective, or KPI. Thresholds are not relevant for a Metric.
    General Details tab

    Owner. The owner of the entity (Objective, KPI, or Metric) selected in the Active KPIs pane.

    Description. The description of the entity selected in the Active KPIs pane.

    Business Motivation. The business motivation of the KPI selected in the Active KPIs pane.

    Additional Info. Links to external pages, Dashboard pages that were configured in the Studio for the Objective, KPI, or Metric, BO, or Xcelsius reports as configured in the item configuration.

    When an Objective, KPI, or Metric has been assigned a Dashboard page in Additional Info, and if you change the name of the page in the Dashboard, the change is not reflected in Explorer. Explorer is updated only after the cache is refreshed for example by editing in the Studio or by performing a calculation.

    Note for the System Administrator: Xcelsius and BO Reports can be added as Additional Info in the Objective, KPI, or Metric when the parameter bo.in.use is configured as true in the SETTINGS_MANAGEMENT table in the Management database.
    Calculation Details tab

    The tab displays the configuration of the Objective, KPI, or Metric as it appears in the Studio.

    Unit. The unit of the Metric, KPI, or KPI Breakdown or Metric Breakdown.

    Calculation Period. The period of the Objective, Metric, KPI, or KPI Breakdown.

    Business Context. The context assigned to the Metric, KPI, or KPI Breakdown or Metric Breakdown.

    KPI/Metric Formula. The formula used to calculate the KPI/Metric value.

    Filter. The filter assigned to the KPI/Metric.

    Comments. The comments added to the KPI/Metric definition.

    Calculated Using. The type of rule used to calculate the Objective's score according to the score of its children. It can be:

    • Worst child. The Objective score is the worst score of all the KPIs assigned to the parent Objective (when the Objective has child KPIs) or of the Objectives assigned to the parent Objective.
    • Best child. The Objective score is the best score of all the KPIs assigned to the parent Objective (when the Objective has child KPIs) or of the Objectives assigned to the parent Objective.
    • Weighted average. The Objective score is the average of the scores of the KPIs assigned to the parent Objective multiplied by the relevant weights, or if the Objective has child Objectives, the average of the scores of the child Objectives multiplied by the relevant weights. When you select this rule in the Studio, an additional column (Weight) where the user can configure the weight of each child (Objective or KPI) for the weighted average calculation. When you select this value a note is displayed explaining what is weighted average.
    Additional Details tab

    Displays the additional information specified for the Objective, KPI, or Metric as it appears in the STUDIO.

    Depending on the item, it can be links to BO or Xcelsius reports, external links, or links to Dashboard pages.

    • Name.The name of the link or the reports.
    • URL. The hyperlink to access additional external information.
    Forecast Details tab

    The tab displays the configuration of the Objective, KPI, or Metric as it appears in the Studio.

    Algorithm.The name of the algorithm. For details, see Explorer - Forecast.

    Mean Absolute Percentage Error.The percentage of accuracy of the forecast results. The closer to 0% the more accurate the forecast.

    Alpha.The value used for the Alpha parameter in the algorithm.

    Gamma. The value used for the Gamma parameter in the algorithm.

    Number of Historical Points.The number of historical points used in the calculation.

    • ClosedToolbar

    User interface elements are described below (when relevant, unlabeled elements are shown in angle brackets):

    UI Element

    Description

    Send mail. Opens an Outlook email, with the name of the selected entity in the Subject box.

    Save snapshot. Captures the current view in Explorer (all of it) in a new window. A dialog box opens to ask you where you want to save the image.

    Print. Displays the Print dialog box where you can select the printer and how to print the content of the corresponding Explorer tab.

    The printout includes:

    • The contents of the area that was selected while you clicked the button.
    • The Annotations Area.

    Show/Hide Annotations. The button is enabled only for Objectives, KPIs, KPI Breakdowns, Metrics, Metric Breakdowns, or Unassigned KPI. It opens a box where you can add your annotation or hide them after viewing. For details, see Annotations.

    Click the button again to close the Annotation area.

    Note The Show/Hide Annotations icon with a little + sign in the bottom toolbar indicates that a new annotation was added to the selected item during the past week.
    The number of days during which the annotations are considered to be new is a setting that is configurable by your administrator in Admin > Scorecard > Dashboard Settings > Number of days annotations are considered new. For example, if the administrator gives the setting the value 14, then the + sign will indicate that the annotation was added in the last 2 weeks. The default is a week.

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