The Forecast Component

You can view the report in the relevant page in the Dashboard.

The correctness of the forecast calculation is based on the historical data of the entity and is calculated using the DoubleExponentialSmoothingModel algorithm. The more data there is the more precise the forecast is.

• ft = a.Yt+(1-a)(ft-1+bt-1)

• bt = g.(ft-ft-1)+(1-g).bt-1

where:

• Yt is the observed value at time t.

• ft is the forecast at time t.

• bt is the estimated slope at time t.

• a - (alpha) - is the first smoothing constant, used to smooth the observations. Its value is: 0.6.

• g - (gamma) - is the second smoothing constant, used to smooth the trend. Its value is: 0.6.

To forecast:

ft+m= ft+ mbt-m

where m=1 (The time interval).

The initial point is: f1=y1; b1=y2-y1

The best forecasts are based on a large amount of historical data.

To provide the best forecast using the above algorithm, the calculation relies on as much historical data as is available. The following table indicates what are the minimum historical periods needed to calculate a certain future period.

If you select a forecast period that cannot be calculated due to the lack of data, the error message You do not have enough valid historical data to calculate the forecast or you do not have the correct viewing permissions. Contact your administrator is issued, and the forecast calculation is not performed. When the historical data is less than the value of the Minimum historical data to calculate single future period, the Forecast is not calculated.

So for a yearly KPI, only when the historical data is less than 3 years, there will be insufficient data to calculate a 3 years, 2 years, and 1 years forecast.

Wiring. Wiring is between components. It does not depend on the component internal format. For details, see Wiring Between Components.

If you drill down (to Breakdowns) in a specific component that is wired to another component on the same page, and you click the triggering component, the component with the Breakdowns is restored to its top level and filtered according to the triggering component.

The Breakdown View component is automatically wired to the KPI View, Historical View, and KPI Rolodex component that appear on the same Dashboard page. This means, that when you select a KPI in the KPI View component, its KPI Breakdowns are listed in the Breakdown List and you can select to display the relevant one. You cannot configure the Breakdown View component.

The Historical View component is automatically wired to the Breakdown View component and to the Forecast component. For details, see The Breakdown View Component and The Forecast Component.

To add a component to a page that is already formatted:

1. In the Dashboard, select the relevant page (click the Page Gallery button if the page you want does not already appear in the Dashboard).
2. Click the Components button.

3. In the Component Gallery page that opens, click or double-click the component to place it in the layout area, or select the component and drag it to an area on the page.

   Note that double-click only works if you open the Component Gallery from the layout itself and not from the toolbar.

   • If the target area is hidden by the Component Gallery dialog box, click the Component Gallery dialog box title bar and drag it to another location on your screen.
   • If you are dragging a new component to a target area that already has a component defined, drag the new component to the title bar of the target area, and not to the part of the component that is colored white.

4. Close the Component Gallery page. For user interface details, see Component Gallery and Component Categories.

5. Make sure you add one of the components that is wired to the Forecast component to the Dashboard page. For details, see Wiring Between Components.

6. In the component Filter dialog box that opens, select the information you want to display and click OK.

   The component displays the required information.

For more information, see Page Layout and Components.

In the example below, the Forecast component displays the forecast for the KPI selected in a Historical View component that is wired to the Forecast component.

<Component Toolbar>

Note The component toolbar description is common to all components. Some of the elements might be disabled in some of the components.

User interface elements are described below (when relevant, unlabeled elements are shown in angle brackets):

UI Element	Description
	Component Menu. Opens a menu where you can select: Preferences. Depending on the component you are current configuring, opens the <component_name> Preferences dialog box where you can change the name of the component in the page by changing the name in the Name field and clicking OK. Wiring. Depending on the component you are currently configuring, opens the Wiring dialog box where you can wire the current component to other components. For details, see Wiring Between Components. Refresh. Refreshes the display. The button is disabled in the Page Filter component. Open in a New Window. Opens the component in a new window.
	Configure Component. Opens the Configure Component dialog box for the relevant component. For details, see the relevant section below. Note   The button is disabled in the Breakdown View component, as the component is filtered by the relevant automatically wired components on the same Dashboard page. When you select an item in one of these wired KPI View, Historical View, or Rolodex components, the Breakdown View component displays the values of the KPI Breakdown for the selected KPI. The button is disabled in the Forecast component, as the component is filtered by the relevant automatically wired components on the same Dashboard page. When you select an item in one of these wired Historical View, the Forecast component displays the forecast data for the selected KPI. Note You can also click here in Click Here to configure it in the center of the component
	Opens the online documentation page relevant to the component you are currently configuring.
	Collapse component. Collapses the component. To expand the collapsed component, click the button on the collapsed component.
	Drag the Resize handle to enlarge or reduce horizontally the area occupied by the component.
	Remove Component. Removes the component from the page.

<Graph area>